Strategic Argument and Areas of Debate
The core strategic dilemma is that Türkiye must constantly navigate a strained alliance with the United States, whose long-term regional engineering—deeply intertwined with the expansionist Greater Israel Project and the arming of Kurdish separatist factions—poses a direct existential threat to Turkish national security. This profound contradiction structurally forces Ankara to aggressively pursue autonomous defence and foreign policies to counterbalance the destabilising geopolitical objectives of American and Israeli actors in the Middle East.
Executive Summary
The geopolitical friction within the Türkiye-United States-Israel triangle is fundamentally driven by shifting American strategic priorities and Israeli territorial expansionism that directly challenge Turkish sovereignty. Propelled by the ideological convergence of Neoconservatives and Evangelicals, the United States has consistently advanced the Greater Middle East Project to secure regional hegemony, often heavily aligning with the Greater Israel Project at the expense of local stability. American military and logistical support for the PYD/YPG in Syria, alongside Washington’s persistent protection of the FETO network following the failed 2016 coup against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, have severely fractured the NATO alliance. Consequently, Türkiye is compelled to adopt highly independent military postures and develop self-reliant defence industries to mitigate the catastrophic risk of an Israeli-backed Kurdish autonomous statelet forming on its southern border.
Analytical Framework and Key Drivers
The Greater Middle East Project: Formulated by the George W. Bush administration in 2004 under the guise of democratisation, this framework functions as an interventionist strategy to solidify United States geopolitical hegemony and secure access to regional energy resources. It structurally transforms regional political dynamics in ways that inherently strengthen Israel and marginalise independent regional actors.
The Greater Israel Project: Rooted in theological and ideological narratives shared by American Evangelicals and Neoconservatives, this expansionist framework drives modern Israeli security policy and territorial ambition. It relies heavily on unwavering military and diplomatic backing from the United States to ensure regional dominance and continuously marginalise Palestinian statehood.
Deep State Infiltration and Subversion: Throughout the Cold War, the United States exerted profound influence over Turkish domestic politics through the NATO-linked Counter-Guerrilla network, which later evolved into structural vulnerabilities exploited by the FETO parallel state. The culmination of this ongoing subversion was the failed July 15, 2016 military coup, which deeply eroded the foundations of trust between Ankara and Washington.
Proxy Warfare and Kurdish Separatism: American tactical reliance on the PYD/YPG under the umbrella of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stands in direct conflict with Turkish territorial integrity. The deliberate provision of advanced weaponry, such as AVENGER air defence systems, to these separatist groups demonstrates Washington’s strategic preference for proxy militias over formal NATO alliance commitments.
Great Power Containment Dynamics: The United States is increasingly aligning its Middle Eastern military footprint with Israeli interests to efficiently counter the growing economic influence of China via the Belt and Road Initiative and the military assertiveness of Russia. This broader global containment strategy necessitates maintaining a disruptive presence in the region, systematically complicating any independent Turkish foreign policy initiatives.
Strategic Assessment & Empirical Findings
- The refusal of the United States to support Türkiye during the Cyprus Crisis in 1964 and the subsequent imposition of a devastating arms embargo in 1975 served as primary catalysts for Ankara to establish an independent domestic defence industry, leading to the creation of strategic corporations like ASELSAN and ROKETSAN.
- Following the 2003 American invasion of Iraq, the resulting regional power vacuum enabled terrorist organisations to establish robust training camps in the north, directly validating the Turkish parliament’s prior rejection of a motion that would have allowed American forces to utilise Turkish territory for the invasion.
- The thwarted military coup orchestrated by the FETO network on July 15, 2016, fundamentally altered bilateral relations, as Washington’s persistent refusal to extradite the group’s leadership signalled to Ankara a tacit American approval of a parallel state structure designed to undermine Turkish sovereignty.
- During his first presidential term spanning 2016 to 2020, Donald J. Trump actively facilitated the Abraham Accords, normalising Israeli diplomatic relations with several Gulf and African nations to aggressively isolate Iran and limit direct American military expenditure in the region.
- The Trump administration intentionally degraded bilateral economic relations by imposing damaging tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium in 2018, escalating frictions that were further compounded by the invocation of severe CAATSA sanctions in 2019 following the Turkish acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defence system.
- In July 2024, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) drastically escalated security threats against Türkiye by delivering AVENGER short-range air defence systems to the PKK/PYD, following a highly provocative incident in October 2023 where American F-16 fighter jets destroyed an armed Turkish drone in Syrian airspace.
Geopolitical Trajectories & Policy Risks
- The continued arming of the PYD/YPG by the United States generates a severe structural risk of border fragmentation, pushing Türkiye toward unavoidable military confrontations to prevent the establishment of an Israeli-backed Kurdish autonomous region in northern Syria.
- As the United States recalibrates its global posture to aggressively counter Chinese economic expansion and Russian military influence, its strategic dependency on Israeli proxy power will rapidly accelerate regional instability, forcing Türkiye to continuously balance its restrictive NATO obligations against its own acute national security vulnerabilities.
- The enduring presence of the FETO network operating freely within the United States, coupled with historical American utilisation of deep-state apparatuses like Counter-Guerrilla, exposes Türkiye to persistent institutional subversion vulnerabilities, demanding hyper-vigilance from the Turkish establishment against foreign-backed political engineering.
Critical Policy Questions & Responses
Question 1 How does the ideological alignment between American Neoconservatives and Evangelicals directly threaten Turkish national security objectives in the Middle East?
Answer: The theological and strategic convergence of American Neoconservatives and Evangelical Christians actively drives Washington’s steadfast support for the Greater Israel Project, fundamentally reshaping regional borders and threatening local stability. This ideological framework marginalises Palestinian statehood and encourages the fragmentation of neighbouring states like Syria, inadvertently empowering separatist militias such as the PYD/YPG which pose an existential threat to the territorial integrity of Türkiye.
Question 2 Why has the United States historically leveraged parallel state structures like Gladio and FETO to shape domestic political outcomes within Türkiye?
Answer: Following the establishment of the Cold War order, the United States heavily utilised covert NATO networks, specifically the Counter-Guerrilla apparatus, to suppress domestic communist movements and ensure strict Turkish geopolitical compliance, culminating in engineered conflicts that preceded the 1980 military coup. As the global system transitioned, Washington shifted its strategic reliance toward the FETO network to systematically infiltrate the Turkish judiciary and military, resulting in severe systemic vulnerabilities that climaxed during the thwarted July 15, 2016 coup attempt.
Question 3 What strategic consequences emerge from Washington’s ongoing military support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its integration with the PYD/YPG?
Answer: The calculated decision by the United States to provide advanced military hardware, including AVENGER air defence systems in July 2024, to the PYD/YPG under the guise of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fundamentally fractures NATO alliance solidarity. This direct military backing accelerates the risk of an independent, Israeli-supported Kurdish statelet forming on the southern border of Türkiye, compelling Ankara to launch unilateral cross-border offensives such as Operation Euphrates Shield to decisively dismantle these territorial gains.
Question 4 How did historical American arms embargoes and defence procurement denials alter the long-term strategic defence posture of Türkiye?
Answer: The imposition of an arms embargo by the United States Congress in 1975 following the Turkish military intervention in Cyprus, combined with the 2013 refusal to supply crucial Patriot missiles, forced Ankara to aggressively pursue strategic autonomy. Consequently, Türkiye established robust domestic defence corporations like ASELSAN and ROKETSAN, and controversially procured the Russian S-400 air defence system in 2019, an action that subsequently triggered severe CAATSA sanctions.
Key Actors and Systemic Dynamics
- United States → Supports → Greater Israel Project
- United States → Arms and equips → PYD/YPG
- Türkiye → Constrains → PYD/YPG
- Neoconservatives → Accelerates → Greater Middle East Project
- Evangelicals → Strengthens → United States support for Israel
- Israel → Depends on → United States military hegemony
- FETO → Undermines → Türkiye
- China → Competes with → United States
- Russia → Challenges → United States influence in the Middle East
- NATO → Is affected by → United States proxy warfare in Syria
- Abraham Accords → Enables → Israel regional influence
