The Russia – Ukraine War has transformed the Black Sea into a growing security challenge extending well beyond the belligerents. Attacks on commercial vessels, ports and energy infrastructure, increasingly involving unmanned aerial and maritime systems, threaten the interests of third states and the safety of international .navigation. Given the region’s importance to global grain and energy markets, disruptions risk far-reaching economic and humanitarian consequences, affecting supply chains, food security and energy supplies.
Protecting civilian shipping and critical infrastructure is therefore both a legal obligation under international humanitarian law and a broader imperative for regional and international stability. Yet existing legal protections have proved insufficient to shield maritime commerce and energy networks from the consequences of continuing hostilities.
This Policy Outlook argues that Black Sea security should not depend on a comprehensive settlement of the Russia– Ukraine War. Instead, narrowly defined, reciprocal and verifiable arrangements could protect maritime navigation and energy infrastructure while reducing the risks of escalation. Türkiye, drawing on its diplomatic experience and distinctive position in the Black Sea, is well placed to facilitate such agreements, provided they accommodate the strategic calculations of both belligerents.
