Strategic Argument and Areas of Debate
The global geopolitical order is being rapidly reshaped by dual forces of state-driven technological sovereignty and volatile diplomatic realignments, characterised by Türkiye’s systematic pursuit of a techno-nationalist ecosystem and the United States’ impending return to a maximalist Middle East strategy under a prospective Trump 2.0 administration. This creates a profound systemic tension where emerging middle powers construct autonomous institutional resilience, while traditional hegemons increasingly rely on disruptive maximum pressure doctrines and conditional security pacts that threaten to institutionalise regional conflict.
Executive Summary
Two interrelated studies by the TRT World Research Centre explore the structural shifts redefining national sovereignty and regional stability in the modern era. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye has leveraged the National Technology Initiative (NTI) and institutions like the Turkish Wealth Fund (TVF) to achieve indigenous technological independence, fundamentally reducing its reliance on foreign defence and digital systems. Conversely, a prospective second term for United States President Donald Trump threatens Middle Eastern equilibrium by institutionalising unconditional support for Israel, aggressively marginalising the Palestinian two-state solution, and pursuing the expansion of the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign against Iran threatens to inadvertently deepen Tehran’s strategic trade relations with China, compounding systemic volatility while middle powers like Türkiye actively seek resilient geopolitical autonomy.
Analytical Framework and Key Drivers
- State-Driven Techno-Nationalist Ecosystem: Through the Vision 2023 roadmap and the National Technology Initiative (NTI), the Turkish state systematically incubated indigenous high-tech and defence sectors to achieve long-term geopolitical independence.
- Resurgence of Maximum Pressure: The United States is projected to intensify economic sanctions and military coercion against Iran, explicitly targeting its oil trade with China while attempting to dismantle the IRGC and Hezbollah.
- Transactional Diplomatic Normalisation: A Trump 2.0 administration will prioritise the expansion of the Abraham Accords by courting Saudi Arabia, fundamentally resting on controversial U.S. security guarantees rather than sustainable regional peacebuilding.
- Institutional Incubation and Synergies: Turkish agencies like TÜBİTAK and the Digital Transformation Office (DTO) deploy robust funding mechanisms and partnerships with entities like ASELSAN to rapidly commercialise academic research and digital infrastructure.
- Ideological Foreign Policy Realignment: The anticipated appointment of strictly pro-Israel officials signals a total U.S. abandonment of the two-state solution, deliberately isolating the United Nations and institutionalising permanent regional conflict.
Strategic Assessment & Empirical Findings
- Driven by aggressive state funding and public-private partnerships, Türkiye achieved a 106% increase in arms exports from 2019 to 2023, establishing itself as the world’s 11th largest arms exporter.
- The Turkish digital ecosystem successfully expanded physical innovation hubs, resulting in 82 operational technoparks by 2023 that host 9,000 companies and generate 8 billion USD in exports.
- During the previous Trump administration, the strategy of maximum pressure inflicted 200 billion USD in economic losses on Iran but ultimately failed to halt nuclear progression, with uranium enrichment reaching 60%.
- U.S. military and political backing for Israel surged dramatically, exceeding 22.7 billion USD in assistance between October 2023 and September 2024, a figure expected to climb under a renewed Trump presidency.
- Despite extensive U.S. sanctions, Iran successfully circumvented restrictions by exporting approximately 70 billion USD in oil to China in 2023, securing a critical economic lifeline.
- Türkiye’s energy diversification strategy includes the 20 billion USD Russian-funded Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which is projected to supply 10% of the nation’s electricity while creating complex geopolitical dependencies.
Geopolitical Trajectories & Policy Risks
- By demanding formal U.S. security guarantees to join the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia forces the United States to potentially commit to defending Riyadh against complex proxy threats, creating severe military overextension risks.
- Türkiye’s reliance on foreign partnerships for critical infrastructure, particularly China’s Huawei for 5G telecommunications and Russia’s Rosatom for nuclear energy, introduces profound structural dependencies that threaten long-term strategic autonomy.
- The complete U.S. rejection of the Palestinian two-state solution by ideologically driven cabinet members fundamentally erodes the legitimacy of the United Nations framework, risking cyclical asymmetrical warfare and irreversible regional destabilisation.
Critical Policy Questions & Responses
Question 1 How does the National Technology Initiative (NTI) resolve the structural vulnerability of Türkiye’s industrial base?
Answer: The NTI aggressively centralises state capital and aligns it with national security priorities, specifically leveraging institutions like TÜBİTAK and the Digital Transformation Office (DTO) to cultivate indigenous intellectual property. By institutionalising university-industry collaboration and subsidising start-ups through the BiGG Investment program, the state rapidly commercialises technology, mitigating the risks of foreign dependency.
Question 2 What strategic trade-offs does the United States face when pursuing the expansion of the Abraham Accords?
Answer: To successfully integrate Saudi Arabia into the normalisation framework, the Trump 2.0 administration must concede to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s demands for a comprehensive U.S. security umbrella and a civilian nuclear programme. This severely restricts future U.S. diplomatic flexibility, forcing Washington to absorb the systemic risks of defending Riyadh against regional threats like Iran and the Houthis.
Question 3 Why does the maximum pressure strategy inadvertently strengthen the geopolitical relationship between Iran and China?
Answer: By implementing severe economic sanctions that cut Iran off from Western markets, the United States structurally compels Tehran to seek alternative economic integration. As a direct consequence, China emerged as Iran’s largest trade partner, absorbing approximately 70 billion USD in Iranian oil in 2023 and providing a massive economic buffer that undermines U.S. regional hegemony.
Question 4 How does the public-private partnership model involving ASELSAN safeguard Türkiye’s geopolitical autonomy?
Answer: As a hybrid entity backed by the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation (TAFF), ASELSAN effectively channels commercial investments directly into the production of indigenous defence systems, such as the KORAL electronic warfare system. This strategic synergy deliberately insulates the Turkish military from foreign arms embargoes, driving a 106% surge in arms exports and securing sovereign defensive capabilities.
Key Actors and Systemic Dynamics
- Vision 2023 → Shapes → National Technology Initiative (NTI)
- United States → Enforces maximum pressure on → Iran
- TÜBİTAK → Funds → BiGG Investment program
- Iran → Evades sanctions through trade with → China
- Digital Transformation Office (DTO) → Coordinates with → National Artificial Intelligence Strategy (NAIS)
- Israel → Seeks normalisation with → Saudi Arabia
- Saudi Arabia → Demands security guarantees from → United States
- Turkish Wealth Fund (TVF) → Invests in → Türk Telekom
- ASELSAN → Strengthens → Türkiye’s defence self-sufficiency
- Project 2025 → Undermines → Two-state solution
- Rosatom → Operates → Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant
- Abraham Accords → Marginalises → Palestinian self-determination
